The stock market's breathless climb should be a red flag to investors, and a recession may already be underway, David Rosenberg warned in a note to clients this week.13 straight sessionsStocks were up 28% at this point in 1987, Rosenberg noted. But they erased those gains over the next five months, in large part because the Dow tanked 22% on October 19 that year — a date now known as Black Monday.
Rosenberg cautioned investors who expect stocks to soar because inflation has now slowed. The pace of price increases has plunged from 9.1% to 3% over the last 12 months, fueling hopes that the Federal Reserve will halt its interest-rate hikes and soon reverse them, enabling the US economy to avoid a recession.
Indeed, Rosenberg pointed out that inflation fell sharply during the dot-com era, the financial crisis, and the early-1980s downturn — and the S&P 500 tanked 26%, 30%, and 8% during each of those periods.
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