Put away your white clothes and your barbecues, now that summer is over with Labor Day in the rear-view window. Most of Wall Street’s attention is still on Friday’s jobs report, which showed a Goldilocks-like combination of a slowing labor market but not one tail-spinning into a recession.
“Recent volatility in U.S. rates has raised the question of whether we are on the verge of a bear market for bonds. We do not share this view and think nominal yields will fall over our six- to 12-month forecast horizon for a number of reason,” say the UBS team led by Mark Haefele, global wealth management chief investment officer.
The UBS team add expectations for where rates will end up hasn’t changed very much. “We do not believe the U.S. Treasury market has lost its safe-haven appeal, and it will likely continue to attract capital. There has also not been a material repricing higher of terminal policy rate expectations, indicating the market believes the Fed is close to the end of hikes,” they say.
The market U.S. stock futures ES00, -0.11% NQ00, -0.22% were a bit weaker as the yield on the 10-year Treasury BX:TMUBMUSD10Y rose. It’s the dregs of earnings season, with C3.ai AI, +0.64%, GameStop GME, -0.70%, DocuSign DOCU, +2.72%, Smith & Wesson SWBI, -0.26% and Kroger KR, -0.88% among the companies reporting results this week.
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