Ian Bremmer told Business Insider the most interesting thing he learned at the World Economic Forum this week is that most people here think Trump is going to win and they are increasingly OK with that.
Bremmer says if you want businesses to focus on sustainability, you have to figure out how to make sustainability good for business. And what's funny is it clearly has made them believe that Trump is going to win a second term. And by the way, there's no way this group should feel so certain about that at this stage in an unprecedented election. I'm not saying he can't win. Number one, because Bloomberg is going to spend an unconscionable amount of money no matter who the nominee is on the Dems. Number two, because Trump is still historically unpopular.
Between the US and Europe, Trump is signaling you know, he's going to figure out a way to work with the French for the time being. They delay on hitting the tech firms and we delay on hitting them on automotive and the rest. And you know, USMCA, the successor to the NAFTA deal, is agreed to and is in relatively short order going to be improved by the Mexicans and has been by the Americans and will be by the Canadians, that'll take longer.
But, in relatively short order, you're going to have not just the US versus China, but a virtual Berlin Wall going up between countries around the world, they're going to have to choose. And that's already when Modi had to tilt away from a lot of his economic reforms to get reelected, and now they're focusing more on Hindu nationalism. I mean, you used to have an incredible India, you know, was the big sign that was right over there at the end of the promenade. I don't see incredible India here this year. I didn't see a very big delegation, they're worried. And how worried are you about what's happening in India? It's on your risk report for 2020.
They do think that there's going to be a slowdown going forward. There is a "risk off," you know, kind of environment, where emerging markets that aren't well governed are going to get hit, you already see that happening in places like Turkey, Argentina, right. There'll be more countries like that. Is Brazil going to be one of them, for example, what about Mexico? There's a concern that there's going to be a squeeze.
The reality in all those things are coming. All those things are coming. But they're not coming as fast in the developed world because the developed world resists its swamps being drained.
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Source: BusinessInsider - 🏆 729. / 51 Read more »
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Source: BusinessInsider - 🏆 729. / 51 Read more »
Source: BusinessInsider - 🏆 729. / 51 Read more »