Moody’s changes outlook for global aviation industry to positive

“We expect this positive demand trend to run for many quarters, into 2023, ” it said on Tuesday, pointing out to rising Covid-19 vaccinations will spur a demand in leisure traffic.

“We expect the industry to sustain operating losses and negative operating margins for all of 2021, although to a lesser degree than in 2020, ” it said. The restoration of the ability to travel will relieve the tremendous pent-up demand to fly to visit friends and relatives and for vacations. “Additionally, we are changing the outlook even though travel activity in Europe in the first quarter was lower than we had forecast in November 2020.

Moody’s pointed out the strong recovery in US domestic travel demand that began in March 2021 highlights the benefits of the combination of vaccinations and a large geographic footprint for the return of domestic travel demand However, loosening government regulations to allow arriving passengers to move freely without quarantines or COVID-19 tests will be needed for the full return of air travel, of all types; this in turn will be needed to fully restore global activity to 2019 levels.

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