Money markets and giants including Goldman Sachs Group Inc., JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Barclays Plc now see the Fed boosting rates by 75 basis points. The last time officials hiked by that amount was under then Chair Alan Greenspan in 1994. Wednesday’s decision is due at 2 p.m. in Washington and Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference 30 minutes later.
“While markets now expect a 75-basis-point rate hike by the Fed, the press conference following the release of the statement this afternoon will help analysts assess the Fed’s ability to navigate Chairman Powell’s so-called “softish” landing as it takes a more aggressive approach in stanching inflation,” said Quincy Krosby, chief equity strategist for LPL Financial.
“The Fed is likely to bow to pressure and match market expectations with a hike of 75 basis points,” said Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at City Index and FOREX.com. “If it doesn’t, and it is ‘only’ a 50 bp hike, then I would expect to see a sharp relief rally for risk assets and a drop in the dollar. That being said, any weakness for the greenback is likely to be short-lived. The Fed remains head-and-shoulders above other major central banks in terms of hawkishness.