Business Maverick: Bonds Surge as Recession Fears Rattle Wall Street: Markets Wrap

in stocks is high as investors are only pricing a mild recession, said Goldman Sachs Group Inc. strategists.

“This week marks a significant regime shift in the market: we are pivoting away from higher inflation to weaker global growth and imminent recession risk as the dominant market driver,” wrote George Saravelos, global head of currency research at Deutsche Bank. Both stocks and bonds were rocked by outflows this week as investors fear the global economy could contract amid sky-high inflation and hawkish central banks. About $5.8 billion exited global equity funds in the week through June 29, BofA said, citing EPFR Global data. Bonds had redemptions of $17 billion.

A survey conducted by 22V Research showed that 71% of the investors polled believe that second-quarter results will be a negative driver for stocks. The respondents also estimated 2022 earnings-per-share will come in around $212 — 7% lower than consensus forecasts of $228, wrote founder Dennis DeBusschere.

“There’s a lot of nervousness about second-quarter earnings, which will start next week, and early indications that the warnings coming from company management are going to cause analysts to drastically reduce their earnings estimates for the second half of the year and perhaps even into 2023,” said Leo Grohowski, chief investment officer at BNY Mellon Wealth Management.

ɪ'ᴍ ɴᴏ ᴇxᴘᴇʀᴛ ɪɴ ᴛʀᴀᴅɪɴɢ ʙᴜᴛ ɪ ʜᴀᴅ ɢᴏᴏᴅ ɢᴜɪᴅᴀɴᴄᴇ ᴡɪᴛʜ mamats38 ᴀɴᴅ ʜer ᴛᴇᴀᴍ, ɪᴛ'ꜱ ʙᴇʏᴏɴᴅ ᴇʏᴇ ᴏᴘᴇɴɪɴɢ, ᴡɪᴛʜ ᴛʜᴇꜱᴇ ᴛᴇᴀᴄʜɪɴɢꜱ ᴀɴᴅ ᴛʀᴀᴅɪɴɢ ꜱᴋɪʟʟ, I'ᴠᴇ ʜᴀᴅ ɴᴏᴛʜɪɴɢ ʙᴜᴛ ᴄᴏɴᴛɪɴᴜᴇᴅ ꜱᴜᴄᴄᴇꜱꜱ.

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