NEW YORK: Optimism that the United States and China will soon reach a trade deal has helped propel stocks close to new highs, but the decisive factor in whether the bull market runs much further may be this year's corporate earnings.
Yet those factors may not be enough to sustain the bull run if corporate earnings are underwhelming. Risks remain on trade too, with U.S. trade official Clete Willems telling Reuters on Monday that the White House is"not satisfied yet" about all the issues standing in the way of a deal to end the U.S.-China trade war.
"Almost all the earnings growth is backloaded into the end of the year," said Emily Roland, head of capital markets research at John Hancock Investments in Boston."We're going to need a positive surprise in earnings to keep the engine running for strong market returns." Investors have sought to pinpoint how much of a slowdown in China's economic growth can be attributed to the effect of U.S. tariffs.
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