A currency carry trade is where investors borrow in a high-yielding currency to fund a trade with a low-yielding currency, aiming to capture the difference between the two rates. Cyclical beta is the currency's sensitivity to the broader economic cycle and market returns.
"The peso remains our top choice in this group: while it appears to have less 'room to run' than some other EM high-yielders, this week's sell-off means that USD/MXN still stands well over 10% higher than its pre-coronacrisis level of roughly 19," Trivedi and Maasry said in the note. "From a medium-run perspective, the peso's combination of currency-supportive macro fundamentals and still-high yields make it an attractive choice."Relative to the peso, Goldman analysts suggested that the rand and ruble both have more room to run, with ZAR "deeply undervalued" and RUB having retraced less of its year-to-date sell-off.
However, Goldman is optimistic about this prospect, as the rand is sensitive to Chinese data, which has been suggesting a continued recovery. Trivedi and Maasry suggested that with the U.S. election potentially keeping U.S.-Russia headlines in the spotlight through the first half of the fourth quarter, the "potential for cyclical upside is arguably higher for the rand."
As of Friday morning, the ruble was changing hands at around 77.57 to the dollar and the rand hovered just below 17.08.
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