Ukraine-Russia crisis and the oil price pain

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Oil and other fossil fuel prices have increased sharply over the past year and fears over a Russia-Ukraine war have stoked further recent increases. Moneyweb OilPrice

Global oil prices have increased rapidly in recent weeks, some would say alarmingly so. This is part of a broader rise in energy prices that is creating winners and losers, threats and opportunities. Over the past year, the Brent crude price has risen 60% in dollars to hitting $90 per barrel for the first time since 2014. While oil price volatility is normal, the usually sleepy coal market saw prices triple, fall, and rise again to 156% above year-ago levels.

Each unit of GDP uses a lot less oil and gas, and therefore every dollar the oil price rises, takes a relatively smaller chunk out of business and consumer pockets. However, the recent spike in energy does not leave those pockets whole by any means. The first impact of higher energy prices is simply that there is less money to spend on everything else. Therefore, while energy prices will push up headline inflation rates, central banks don’t respond immediately.

 

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