US economic activity is expected to post a modestly firmer increase in the second quarter, based on the median estimate for a set of nowcasts compiled by CapitalSpectator.com. More than half of the quarter’s data sets have yet to be published, but the early clues continue to skew positive.
Despite the relatively upbeat profile, several risk factors are lurking, including negative sentiment. A new poll of Americans “wrongly believe the US is in an economic recession,” reports The Guardian. Meanwhile, the US Consumer Sentiment Index weakened in May to its lowest reading in six months. A possible early sign of trouble for later this year is the ongoing slowdown in labor market growth. Year-over-year private payroll growth has ranged from 1.6% to 1.8% in recent months through April.
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