The popular $100K year-end goal for Bitcoin has less than 10% probability in options market

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The way BTC options trading on Deribit are currently priced suggests a 9.58% chance of prices rising above $100,000 by Dec.

27. The possibility of prices rising to $82,000 is higher, according to one observer. Options market probabilities can change quickly with market conditions. As sophisticated and retail investors rally around the possibility of bitcoin's price surging to at least $100,000 by the year-end, the options market tied to the cryptocurrency assigns a low probability of such a surge materializing. At press time, the way options were priced on dominant exchange Deribit showed a 9.

$82K realistic possibility Several traders recently told CoinDesk that prices could rise to around $80,000 by the end of the year, irrespective of who wins the pivotal U.S. election, due Nov. 5. The options market does suggest a possibility of a 22% price swing in either direction by the end of December, which means scope for a rally above $80,000 by the year-end. The current market implied volatility of BTC at-the-money options expiring on Dec.

 

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The Popular $100K Year-End Goal for Bitcoin Has Less Than 10% Probability in Options MarketOmkar Godbole is a Co-Managing Editor on CoinDesk's Markets team.
Source: CoinDesk - 🏆 291. / 63 Read more »