When the three-month tops the benchmark 10-year yield, that's called an inverted yield curve and has been a strong sign since 1950 that a recession is coming in the next 12 months.
The New York Fed tracks the relationship and establishes a probability based on the spread. As 2019 ended, the recession chance stood at 23.6%, still elevated but a far cry from the nearly 40% reading as the curve inverted. "While the Fed may want to portray its 2020 rate policy as stable, markets are signaling that their bias should be to further easing," Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, said in his daily note Wednesday.
Another virus that all the sudden shows up like in the past it will all the sudden disappear and you want hear of it again like Ebola,Zika but who you have to think who benefits from it?
You guys have been consistently wrong about the economy for many years.