Three decades ago, John Goetz, co-chief investment officer for Pzena Investment Management, was working for an oil conglomerate, crisscrossing the globe to manage projects for the company’s plastics arm.
“We were an original investor in Taiwan Semi,” Goetz says. “We owned 25 per cent of it and when the company went public, we took money out.”In the first few months of the pandemic, companies delayed or reduced orders for chips on the assumption that the global economy would rapidly slow down. Then, record levels of fiscal and monetary stimulus, combined with extra savings for people stuck at home, triggered a surge in demand for goods that required chips – from cars to computers.
“The semiconductor industry is somewhat cyclical, so it does have periods of extreme fear and lower margins. We just haven’t had one recently,” Goetz says.The cost of building fabrication facilities has become so high that it is hard for companies to evaluate whether the endeavour will be profitable. “Enough companies have failed in the past 20 years that there’s not enough left to try. That’s why it’s so concentrated,” Goetz says.
This has increased the risk of a recession – causing investors to question the value of cyclical businesses that are by their nature tightly tethered to economic performance – creating the ideal environment for bargain hunting. “It’s a huge holding in Europe for us,” Goetz says. “When you’re looking at a recession, you’re looking at a massive run-up in materials. Auto production is constrained because of the supply chain problems. You’re going to get hit because you have slowing units, raw materials rising and so margins will get compressed.
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