An election judge directs voters outside a polling place in the Pearl Park Recreation Center on August 11, 2020 in Minneapolis, MinnesotaInvestors view the upcoming US presidential election as a key risk to the stock market, as uncertainty looms around who will win, what policies will be implemented by the winner, and whether the election will be contested and dragged out for longer than usual.
Here are three reasons why the market risks surrounding the US election are set to be priced out, according to JPMorgan.Investors are overestimating the risk associated with the upcoming US presidential election, especially the chance of it becoming a contested election that drags out for months, according to a Wednesday note from JPMorgan.
While the election does pose uncertainty to investors in the sense that who will win the office and what future policy initiatives will be implemented remain unknown, the probability of a months-long contested election is low, JPMorgan said. "Some of the outcomes may be challenged in state courts and even be escalated to the Supreme Court, but the process will likely move fast if the disputes are largely procedural. All this should leave sufficient time for each state to then send its predetermined number of electors to the Electoral College to vote for the winner of the state's election on December 14," JPMorgan said.
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